Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic FPS?

FPS + Gothic

Of 24 developers who shipped a Gothic FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540. 61 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 61 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $3.6k → $629 → $1.5k → $1.8k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,040)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Top 5% $805k (exactly $804,513)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 75
Announced 61
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Boomer Shooter, Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Gore, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 5,410 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metal: Hellsinger older $29.99 13,989 96% 420k $13M (exactly $12,585,903) The Outsiders
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
Painkiller $39.99 1,091 54% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,873) Anshar Studios
Heretic + Hexen $14.99 1,789 95% 54k $805k (exactly $804,513) id Software, Nightdive Studios
Witch Hunt older $9.99 2,291 88% 69k $687k (exactly $686,613) Gua
Painkiller: Black Edition older $9.99 1,928 89% 58k $578k (exactly $577,822) People Can Fly
Sin Spire $9.99 1,580 88% 47k $474k (exactly $473,526) Krasue Games
Warhammer 40,000: Battle Sister older $19.99 596 70% 18k $357k (exactly $357,421) Soul Assembly Ltd
Brush Burial: Gutter World $9.99 838 93% 25k $251k (exactly $251,149) Knife Demon Software
Nosferatu: The Wrath of Malachi older $2.99 1,581 90% 47k $142k (exactly $141,816) Idol FX
MEAT 2 · EA $14.99 17 88% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Trippin Bears
CrimSaw $4.99 24 87% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) SkyBrave
The Deathmind $2.99 35 74% 1.1k $3.1k (exactly $3,140) Etnabyte Games
Runeblight · EA $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Zero Percent Juice
VILE $5.99 10 70% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Moonbit
Witch Stories $4.99 12 91% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Stephen Scott Day

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.