Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic FPS?

FPS + Magic

Of 67 developers who shipped a Magic FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 159 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $660, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 159 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 159 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 67
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $1.9k → $1.2k → $838 → $838 → $3.1k → $539 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 67
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $659 (exactly $659)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,565)
Top 5% $628k (exactly $628,460)
Developers, 2 yr 67
Released games 250
Announced 159
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Boomer Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 54,542 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $660, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 159 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dishonored 2012 · $20M Far Far West 2026 · EA · $19M Dishonored®: Death of the Outsider™ 2017 · $8.8M PixARK 2019 · $6.7M Immortals of Aveum™ 2023 · $5.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dishonored older $9.99 67,504 97% 2.0M $20M (exactly $20,230,949) Arkane Studios
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Dishonored®: Death of the Outsider™ older $29.99 9,801 86% 294k $8.8M (exactly $8,817,960) Arkane Studios
PixARK older $19.99 11,142 73% 334k $6.7M (exactly $6,681,857) Snail Games USA
Immortals of Aveum™ older $59.99 2,794 71% 84k $5.0M (exactly $5,028,362) Ascendant Studios
AMID EVIL older $19.99 6,654 93% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,990,404) Indefatigable
Mage Arena · EA $2.99 17,800 91% 534k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660) jrsjams
Ziggurat older $14.99 2,835 86% 85k $1.3M (exactly $1,274,900) Milkstone Studios
9-nine-:Episode 2 older $19.99 1,948 98% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,168,216) PALETTE
Ziggurat 2 older $24.99 1,292 90% 39k $969k (exactly $968,612) Milkstone Studios
Heretic + Hexen $14.99 1,789 95% 54k $805k (exactly $804,513) id Software, Nightdive Studios
Project Warlock II $16.99 1,233 80% 37k $628k (exactly $628,460) Buckshot Software
Wizordum $19.99 880 91% 26k $528k (exactly $527,736) Emberheart Games
The Adventures of Sir Kicksalot $9.99 999 98% 30k $299k (exactly $299,400) Stéphane Le Roy
TAMASHIKA $19.99 303 80% 9.1k $182k (exactly $181,709) quicktequila
Fantasy Quest $49.99 10 100% 300 $15k (exactly $14,997) Funbang
Seth $12.99 36 77% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) Chaotic Games
ARKOS 2 $12.99 34 91% 1.0k $13k (exactly $13,250) RetroSouls

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.