Should I ship a Dwarf game?
Dwarves
Of 64 developers who shipped a Dwarf game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 131 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1853 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 131 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.2k (exactly $3,236) |
| Top 25% | $79k (exactly $79,292) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 64 |
| Released games | 217 |
| Announced | 131 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 440% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Dwarves
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 82,393 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 4 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 131 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
All pairs with Dwarves
- Tower Defense + Dwarves Strong odds $6.7k
- Base Building + Dwarves Fair $13k
- Resource Management + Dwarves Fair $11k
- Mining + Dwarves Fair $9.6k
- Turn-Based Strategy + Dwarves Fair $3.7k
- Management + Dwarves Fair $3.2k
- Character Customization + Dwarves Fair $3.2k
- Tactical + Dwarves Fair $1.0k
- Roguelite + Dwarves Poor odds $74k
- Dungeon Crawler + Dwarves Poor odds $55k
- Building + Dwarves Poor odds $31k
- Roguelike + Dwarves Poor odds $28k
- Procedural Generation + Dwarves Poor odds $9.6k
- RPG + Dwarves Poor odds $8.0k
- Action + Dwarves Poor odds $6.7k
- Simulation + Dwarves Poor odds $5.2k
- Strategy + Dwarves Poor odds $3.7k
- Crafting + Dwarves Poor odds $1.6k
- Exploration + Dwarves Poor odds $1.2k
- Adventure + Dwarves Poor odds $449
Comparable games
Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M 
Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M 
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 2018 · $82M 
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Deep Rock Galactic | older | $29.99 | 303,142 97% | 9.1M | $273M (exactly $272,736,857) | Ghost Ship Games |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER III | older | $59.99 | 104,822 71% | 3.1M | $189M (exactly $188,648,153) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Warhammer: Vermintide 2 | older | $29.99 | 91,013 84% | 2.7M | $82M (exactly $81,884,396) | Fatshark |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | Dwarf Fortress | older | $29.99 | 29,303 94% | 879k | $26M (exactly $26,363,909) | Bay 12 Games |
 | Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,721 85% | 862k | $26M (exactly $25,840,284) | BioWare |
 | Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor | $12.99 | 46,354 86% | 1.4M | $18M (exactly $18,064,154) | Funday Games | |
 | Pillars of Eternity | older | $29.99 | 16,990 87% | 510k | $15M (exactly $15,285,903) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core | · EA | $29.99 | 14,049 60% | 421k | $13M (exactly $12,639,885) | Ghost Ship Games |
 | Absolum | $24.99 | 9,399 91% | 282k | $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) | Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks | |
 | Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot | $14.99 | 2,588 82% | 78k | $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) | Hamma Studios | |
 | The Lord of the Rings: War in the North™ - Legacy Edition | $19.99 | 1,858 83% | 56k | $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) | Aspyr Media | |
 | Dwarven Realms | $9.99 | 2,850 81% | 86k | $854k (exactly $854,145) | Crater Studios | |
 | Orebound | · EA | $24.99 | 945 77% | 28k | $708k (exactly $708,466) | Emberforge |
 | Small Spaces | · EA | $12.99 | 1,479 89% | 44k | $576k (exactly $576,366) | smilestone games |
 | Gnomes | $9.99 | 1,757 94% | 53k | $527k (exactly $526,573) | DYSTOPIAN | |
 | Dwarf Eats Mountain | $9.99 | 1,114 80% | 33k | $334k (exactly $333,866) | Green Wizard |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.