Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Dwarves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dwarf Strategy game?

Strategy + Dwarves

Of 26 developers who shipped a Dwarf Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.7k, ×5.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×838 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 53 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 53 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Dwarves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $6.7k → $10k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Dwarves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.7k (exactly $3,711)
Top 25% $79k (exactly $79,292)
Top 5% $527k (exactly $526,573)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 115
Announced 53
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 1100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dwarves
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Roguelike, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 7,342 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.7k, 1 in 4 over $79k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Pillars of Eternity older $29.99 16,990 87% 510k $15M (exactly $15,285,903) Obsidian Entertainment
Craft The World older $18.99 15,074 88% 452k $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games
SpellForce 3 Reforced older $39.99 5,784 76% 174k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,065) Grimlore Games
Age of Wonders III older $29.99 7,020 81% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) Triumph Studios
Shadowrun Returns older $14.99 9,521 88% 286k $4.3M (exactly $4,281,594) Harebrained Schemes
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Gnomes $9.99 1,757 94% 53k $527k (exactly $526,573) DYSTOPIAN
Dwarf Eats Mountain $9.99 1,114 80% 33k $334k (exactly $333,866) Green Wizard
Medieval Crafter: Blacksmith $11.99 745 76% 22k $268k (exactly $267,976) Compact Core Games
Hold The Mine · EA $14.99 338 83% 10k $152k (exactly $151,999) Hookaria Games
Union of Gnomes $14.99 270 80% 8.1k $121k (exactly $121,419) Hoolignomes
Gargadusa's Tower $8.99 294 90% 8.8k $79k (exactly $79,292) The Math Team
Mining and Dwarves $6.99 140 65% 4.2k $29k (exactly $29,358) Sockhouse Studios
Gem Miner TD $12.99 72 97% 2.2k $28k (exactly $28,058) iFeral Games
Drill Rift $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Steam Veil Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.