Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Dwarves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dwarf Crafting game?

Crafting + Dwarves

Only 12 developers shipped a Dwarf Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Orebound, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×1128 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 31 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 31 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Dwarves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $219k → $708k → $718 → $1.6k (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Dwarves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $242k (exactly $241,558)
Top 5% $708k (exactly $708,466)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 32
Announced 31
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dwarves
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Crafting
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,924 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 31 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ older $29.99 10,242 80% 307k $9.2M (exactly $9,214,727) Free Range Games
Craft The World older $18.99 15,074 88% 452k $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Thea 2: The Shattering older $24.99 1,892 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Orebound · EA $24.99 945 77% 28k $708k (exactly $708,466) Emberforge
Realms of Magic older $19.99 978 80% 29k $587k (exactly $586,507) Polished Games
Medieval Crafter: Blacksmith $11.99 745 76% 22k $268k (exactly $267,976) Compact Core Games
Stonewards · EA $9.99 806 94% 24k $242k (exactly $241,558) Banana Tiger Studio
First Dwarf · EA older $24.99 314 76% 9.4k $235k (exactly $235,406) Star Drifters
Gargadusa's Tower $8.99 294 90% 8.8k $79k (exactly $79,292) The Math Team
Blacksmith: Ignite the Forge $9.99 103 73% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) Floodgate Crew
The Drunken Beard $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) JMP Games
Dwarf Core $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) IncludeSpark
Dwarf Brew Master $2.99 8 100% 240 $718 (exactly $718) UralIgroStroy
Isekai Guild Simulation $3.99 4 75% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Berkay Turkmen, Pelin Aktas
Dwarf Tavern $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) simulinati

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.