Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Dwarves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dwarf Roguelike?

Roguelike + Dwarves

Of 20 developers who shipped a Dwarf Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $28k, ×45 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $18M, ×28765 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 26 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 44.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 26 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Dwarves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $46k → $212k → $73k → $74k → $28k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Dwarves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $28k (exactly $28,058)
Top 25% $527k (exactly $526,573)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $18,064,154)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 42
Announced 26
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dwarves
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Roguelike; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action Roguelike, PvE
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 69,436 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $28k, 1 in 4 over $520k, 1 in 20 over $18M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 26 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core · EA $29.99 14,049 60% 421k $13M (exactly $12,639,885) Ghost Ship Games
Thea 2: The Shattering older $24.99 1,892 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
Dwarven Realms $9.99 2,850 81% 86k $854k (exactly $854,145) Crater Studios
Rampage Knights older $12.99 2,179 93% 65k $849k (exactly $849,156) Rake in Grass
Gnomes $9.99 1,757 94% 53k $527k (exactly $526,573) DYSTOPIAN
Desktop Dungeons older $14.99 1,134 88% 34k $510k (exactly $509,960) QCF Design
Stonewards · EA $9.99 806 94% 24k $242k (exactly $241,558) Banana Tiger Studio
Hold The Mine · EA $14.99 338 83% 10k $152k (exactly $151,999) Hookaria Games
Union of Gnomes $14.99 270 80% 8.1k $121k (exactly $121,419) Hoolignomes
Iron Core: Mech Survivor $6.99 352 73% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Soda Game Studio
Gem Miner TD $12.99 72 97% 2.2k $28k (exactly $28,058) iFeral Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.