Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Dwarves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dwarf Building game?

Building + Dwarves

Only 14 developers shipped a Dwarf Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Orebound, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $31k, ×49 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×1128 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 22 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 49.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Dwarves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $235k → $958 → $79k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Dwarves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Median $31k (exactly $30,869)
Top 25% $233k (exactly $233,283)
Top 5% $708k (exactly $708,466)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 32
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dwarves
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Resource Management, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cozy, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,705 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $31k, 1 in 4 over $230k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 22 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ older $29.99 10,242 80% 307k $9.2M (exactly $9,214,727) Free Range Games
Craft The World older $18.99 15,074 88% 452k $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games
SpellForce 3 Reforced older $39.99 5,784 76% 174k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,065) Grimlore Games
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
Regions Of Ruin older $11.99 1,972 84% 59k $709k (exactly $709,328) Gameclaw Studio
Orebound · EA $24.99 945 77% 28k $708k (exactly $708,466) Emberforge
Small Spaces · EA $12.99 1,479 89% 44k $576k (exactly $576,366) smilestone games
Dwarf Eats Mountain $9.99 1,114 80% 33k $334k (exactly $333,866) Green Wizard
First Dwarf · EA older $24.99 314 76% 9.4k $235k (exactly $235,406) Star Drifters
Regions of Ruin: Runegate $19.99 389 84% 12k $233k (exactly $233,283) Gameclaw Studio
Hold The Mine · EA $14.99 338 83% 10k $152k (exactly $151,999) Hookaria Games
Gargadusa's Tower $8.99 294 90% 8.8k $79k (exactly $79,292) The Math Team
Blacksmith: Ignite the Forge $9.99 103 73% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) Floodgate Crew
Into the Slimy Mines $12.99 26 100% 780 $10k (exactly $10,132) Ant Workshop Ltd
Heroes Suck $19.99 6 50% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Dawning Light
The Drunken Beard $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) JMP Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.