Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Dwarves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dwarf Adventure game?

Adventure + Dwarves

Of 23 developers who shipped a Dwarf Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1853 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 41 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 41 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Dwarves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.9k → $10k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Dwarves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,132)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 91
Announced 41
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 375% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dwarves
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Action Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 14,693 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 older $29.99 91,013 84% 2.7M $82M (exactly $81,884,396) Fatshark
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Pillars of Eternity older $29.99 16,990 87% 510k $15M (exactly $15,285,903) Obsidian Entertainment
Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide older $29.99 13,662 81% 410k $12M (exactly $12,291,701) Fatshark
The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ older $29.99 10,242 80% 307k $9.2M (exactly $9,214,727) Free Range Games
Craft The World older $18.99 15,074 88% 452k $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
SpellForce 3 Reforced older $39.99 5,784 76% 174k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,065) Grimlore Games
Age of Wonders III older $29.99 7,020 81% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) Triumph Studios
LEGO® The Lord of the Rings™ older $19.99 9,575 90% 287k $5.7M (exactly $5,742,128) Traveller's Tales
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
The Lord of the Rings: War in the North™ - Legacy Edition $19.99 1,858 83% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) Aspyr Media
Regions of Ruin: Runegate $19.99 389 84% 12k $233k (exactly $233,283) Gameclaw Studio
Iron Core: Mech Survivor $6.99 352 73% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Soda Game Studio
Into the Slimy Mines $12.99 26 100% 780 $10k (exactly $10,132) Ant Workshop Ltd
OREBLAZE $4.99 64 92% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Ludiminal Games
Seeker of the Ruins $8.99 7 100% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) LionEY Games
Diggy Diggy Mole $9.73 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,168) Novasplore Games
IRONBORNE $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Tres Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.