Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Dwarves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dwarf Exploration game?

Exploration + Dwarves

Only 15 developers shipped a Dwarf Exploration game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $12M, ×20127 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 37 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 37 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Dwarves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $46k → $80k → $1.9k → $152k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Dwarves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,168)
Top 25% $233k (exactly $233,283)
Top 5% $13M (exactly $12,639,885)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 37
Announced 37
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dwarves
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Action Roguelike
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 64% positive over 16,612 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $230k, 1 in 20 over $12M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 37 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Pillars of Eternity older $29.99 16,990 87% 510k $15M (exactly $15,285,903) Obsidian Entertainment
Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core · EA $29.99 14,049 60% 421k $13M (exactly $12,639,885) Ghost Ship Games
The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ older $29.99 10,242 80% 307k $9.2M (exactly $9,214,727) Free Range Games
Might & Magic X - Legacy older $29.99 3,178 65% 95k $2.9M (exactly $2,859,247) Ubisoft
Sacred Gold older $9.99 3,995 84% 120k $1.2M (exactly $1,197,302) Studio II
Regions Of Ruin older $11.99 1,972 84% 59k $709k (exactly $709,328) Gameclaw Studio
Orebound · EA $24.99 945 77% 28k $708k (exactly $708,466) Emberforge
We Are The Dwarves older $14.99 1,072 75% 32k $482k (exactly $482,078) Whale Rock Games
Stonewards · EA $9.99 806 94% 24k $242k (exactly $241,558) Banana Tiger Studio
Regions of Ruin: Runegate $19.99 389 84% 12k $233k (exactly $233,283) Gameclaw Studio
Hold The Mine · EA $14.99 338 83% 10k $152k (exactly $151,999) Hookaria Games
OREBLAZE $4.99 64 92% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Ludiminal Games
Seeker of the Ruins $8.99 7 100% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) LionEY Games
Diggy Diggy Mole $9.73 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,168) Novasplore Games
Dwarf Guild Mania $6.99 5 80% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Quarkblue
Dwarf Core $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) IncludeSpark

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.