Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Open World game?

Open World + Gothic

Of 25 developers who shipped a Gothic Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $2.0k. Revenue is up 630% on the market; 32 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 630% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $897 → $111k → $25k → $1.9k → $58k → $23k (still earning) → $8.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,397)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,354)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 72
Announced 32
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 630% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Lore-Rich, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 12,755 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  7. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  8. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  9. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  11. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced
  12. + MusicPoor odds10 devs · median $148k · 25 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No Rest for the Wicked 2024 · EA · $79M ELEX 2017 · $11M Gothic 1 2001 · $7.9M Gothic II: Gold Edition 2005 · $7.6M ELEX II 2022 · $6.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Rest for the Wicked · EA older $39.99 66,102 80% 2.0M $79M (exactly $79,302,569) Moon Studios GmbH
ELEX older $29.99 12,443 72% 373k $11M (exactly $11,194,967) Piranha Bytes
Gothic 1 older $19.99 13,172 91% 395k $7.9M (exactly $7,899,248) Piranha Bytes
Gothic II: Gold Edition older $19.99 12,637 93% 379k $7.6M (exactly $7,578,409) Piranha Bytes
ELEX II older $49.99 4,015 73% 120k $6.0M (exactly $6,021,296) Piranha Bytes
Of Ash and Steel $29.99 6,091 66% 183k $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) Fire & Frost
Gothic® 3 older $19.99 9,088 80% 273k $5.5M (exactly $5,450,074) Piranha Bytes
Brutal Legend older $14.99 11,365 94% 341k $5.1M (exactly $5,110,840) Double Fine Productions
SUNLESS SEA older $18.99 7,625 83% 229k $4.3M (exactly $4,343,962) Failbetter Games
Risen older $14.99 7,878 89% 236k $3.5M (exactly $3,542,737) Piranha Bytes, THQ Nordic
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
Vampires: Bloodlord Rising · EA $19.99 1,631 70% 49k $978k (exactly $978,111) Mehuman Games
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
Toziuha Night: Order of the Alchemists $18.99 139 79% 4.2k $79k (exactly $79,188) Danny Garay
Tales of Old: Dominus $14.99 129 47% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Hvmana Industries MMD
THE CANON OF BALLS $3.99 287 98% 8.6k $34k (exactly $34,354) Helios Monk
Claymores of the Lost Kingdom $9.99 83 67% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,875) Ultaan Games
The Story Page · EA $7.99 103 78% 3.1k $25k (exactly $24,689) SPR-Games
Magissy $14.99 52 46% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Bit Fat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.