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Should I ship a Co-op Campaign Open World game?
Co-op Campaign + Open World
Only 17 developers shipped a Co-op Campaign Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dying Light: The Beast, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $270k, ×179 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $15k; 1 in 20 cleared $100M, ×71265 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 65 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $14k (exactly $14,386) |
|---|---|
| Median | $267k (exactly $267,466) |
| Top 25% | $355k (exactly $354,608) |
| Top 5% | $107M (exactly $106,754,605) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 58 |
| Announced | 65 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Co-op Campaign
- effort 8 / 10 · low · shared campaign state over the network
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Co-op Campaign, Open World; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $19.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 105,055 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $15k. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Co-op Campaign with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ZombiesPoor odds
- + Psychological HorrorPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HorrorPoor odds
- + Survival HorrorPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
- + Sci-fiPoor odds
- + Puzzle PlatformerPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + PlatformerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
Comparable games
Borderlands 3 2020 · $230M 
Dying Light: The Beast 2025 · $107M 
Trailmakers 2019 · $25M 
Battlefield 3™ 2020 · $20M 
Big Walk 2026 · $19M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Borderlands 3 | older | $59.99 | 127,847 81% | 3.8M | $230M (exactly $230,086,246) | Gearbox Software |
| | Dying Light: The Beast | $59.99 | 59,318 87% | 1.8M | $107M (exactly $106,754,605) | Techland | |
| | Trailmakers | older | $24.99 | 33,465 92% | 1.0M | $25M (exactly $25,088,710) | Flashbulb |
| | Battlefield 3™ | older | $39.99 | 16,378 71% | 491k | $20M (exactly $19,648,687) | DICE |
| | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
 | Gears 5 | older | $29.99 | 21,210 72% | 636k | $19M (exactly $19,082,637) | The Coalition |
 | Strange Brigade | older | $49.99 | 8,309 84% | 249k | $12M (exactly $12,461,007) | Rebellion |
 | RUNNING WITH RIFLES | older | $14.99 | 14,676 87% | 440k | $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) | Osumia Games |
 | Echo Point Nova | $24.99 | 7,521 96% | 226k | $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) | Greylock Studio | |
 | Drug Dealer Simulator 2 | older | $24.99 | 5,480 69% | 164k | $4.1M (exactly $4,108,356) | Byterunners |
 | Revenge of the Savage Planet | $29.99 | 2,845 86% | 85k | $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) | Raccoon Logic Studios Inc. | |
 | It's Only Money | $24.99 | 473 78% | 14k | $355k (exactly $354,608) | Usual Suspects Studios | |
 | DuneCrawl | $19.99 | 568 74% | 17k | $341k (exactly $340,630) | Alientrap | |
 | Secret Agent Wizard Boy and the International Crime Syndicate | · EA | $9.99 | 931 96% | 28k | $279k (exactly $279,021) | John Szymanski, Evan Szymanski |
 | Big Hops Together | $19.99 | 453 89% | 14k | $272k (exactly $271,664) | Luckshot Games | |
 | Ranger’s Path: National Park Simulator | · EA | $19.99 | 446 76% | 13k | $267k (exactly $267,466) | To-Go Games |
 | Neolithic Dawn | $19.99 | 30 60% | 900 | $18k (exactly $17,991) | Neolithic LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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