Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Real-Time with Pause

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real-Time with Pause Open World game?

Open World + Real-Time with Pause

Only 8 developers shipped a Real-Time with Pause Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Flotsam, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $770k, ×512 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $24k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×2156 the market median. Revenue is up 9190% on the market; 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 511.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 9190% on the market, 11 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Real-Time with Pause
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World + Real-Time with Pause: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $24k (exactly $23,747)
Median $767k (exactly $766,544)
Top 25% $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 55
Announced 11
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 9190% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Real-Time with Pause
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 444,854 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $24k, median $770k, 1 in 4 over $1.5M, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $24k. 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced
  12. + MusicPoor odds10 devs · median $148k · 25 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition 2010 · $26M Imperator: Rome 2019 · $23M Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition 2018 · $17M Pillars of Eternity 2015 · $15M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
Pillars of Eternity older $29.99 16,990 87% 510k $15M (exactly $15,285,903) Obsidian Entertainment
Mass Effect (2007) older $29.99 14,871 93% 446k $13M (exactly $13,379,439) BioWare
FINAL FANTASY XII THE ZODIAC AGE older $49.99 8,679 88% 260k $13M (exactly $13,015,896) Square Enix
Tyranny older $29.99 9,877 87% 296k $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) Obsidian Entertainment
Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire older $19.99 14,659 87% 440k $8.8M (exactly $8,791,002) Obsidian Entertainment
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ older $9.99 28,518 90% 856k $8.5M (exactly $8,546,845) BioWare, Aspyr (Mac)
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
GreedFall: The Dying World $49.99 1,027 61% 31k $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192) Spiders
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
Airborne Empire $29.99 852 86% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) The Wandering Band LLC
Banquet for Fools $19.99 936 89% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Hannah and Joseph Games
Ranchbound · EA $17.99 44 50% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,747) Eldersong Games
NovaMundi $12.99 38 81% 1.1k $15k (exactly $14,809) Slashware Interactive
Space Menace 2 $9.99 20 75% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Only4Gamers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.