Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + FMV

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an FMV Open World game?

Open World + FMV

Only 11 developers shipped an FMV Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Disillusion ST, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×9.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $900. Revenue is up 22670% on the market; 13 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 22670% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + FMV
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World + FMV: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $900 (exactly $900)
Median $14k (exactly $13,793)
Top 25% $101k (exactly $100,750)
Top 5% $173k (exactly $172,763)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 28
Announced 13
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 22670% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, FMV
Price point
$8.49 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 3,966 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 13 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  6. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  7. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  8. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  9. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  11. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced
  12. + MusicPoor odds10 devs · median $148k · 25 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Quantum Break 2016 · $28M Need for Speed™ 2020 · $23M Obduction 2016 · $2.7M IMMORTALITY 2022 · $1.1M Telling Lies 2019 · $750k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Quantum Break older $39.99 23,141 86% 694k $28M (exactly $27,762,258) Remedy Entertainment
Need for Speed™ older $29.99 25,443 69% 763k $23M (exactly $22,891,067) Ghost Games
Obduction older $29.99 3,032 78% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,727,890) Cyan, Inc.
IMMORTALITY older $19.99 1,768 84% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,060,270) Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid
Telling Lies older $19.99 1,250 62% 38k $750k (exactly $749,625) Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid, Furious Bee L… (Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid, Furious Bee Limited)
反转21克 older $8.99 1,020 72% 31k $275k (exactly $275,094) 想象颗粒
Disillusion ST $10.99 524 96% 16k $173k (exactly $172,763) Disillusion Dev, Disillusion Dev
City Lights Love Bites Season 0 [Pilot Season] $2.00 2,766 94% 83k $166k (exactly $165,960) NaughtyOba
Roundabout older $9.99 438 93% 13k $131k (exactly $131,269) No Goblin
Heroines Through My Lens $19.99 168 87% 5.0k $101k (exactly $100,750) Storytaco
Giant Waifu Wash Simulator 💦 $14.99 194 65% 5.8k $87k (exactly $87,242) Lewd Star
Hacked: The Streamer $8.49 268 73% 8.0k $68k (exactly $68,260) Button Interactive, NAISU
Obey the Insect God $19.99 23 100% 690 $14k (exactly $13,793) Chunkle Freaky's Movies Games, Charles… (Chunkle Freaky's Movies Games, Charles Davis)
Dead Silence - Echoes of the Damned $4.99 13 38% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Persian Dare
A Tale Of Shadows: Fragments Part I $29.99 1 0% 30 $900 (exactly $900) Madwriter Games
life's a beach $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Brian Seabury
Mina · EA $5.95 3 0% 90 $536 (exactly $536) Anopia Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.