Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Open World game?

Open World + 4 Player Local

Only 14 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Wobbly Life, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $82k, ×55 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.8k. Revenue is up 1065% on the market; 20 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 55.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 1065% on the market, 20 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $366k → $341k (still earning) → $82k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Median $82k (exactly $82,484)
Top 25% $420k (exactly $419,790)
Top 5% $25M (exactly $24,765,590)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 37
Announced 20
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1065% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, 4 Player Local
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 37,522 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $82k, 1 in 4 over $410k, 1 in 20 over $24M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 20 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  3. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  4. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  5. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  6. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  7. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  8. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  9. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  11. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced
  12. + MusicPoor odds10 devs · median $148k · 25 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Wobbly Life 2025 · $25M Amazing Frog? 2014 · EA · $6.7M Magicka 2 2015 · $4.3M How to Survive 2 2016 · $3.9M Totally Reliable Delivery Service 2021 · $762k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wobbly Life $24.99 33,034 97% 991k $25M (exactly $24,765,590) RubberBandGames
Amazing Frog? · EA older $19.99 11,169 94% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,698,049) Fayju
Magicka 2 older $14.99 9,486 82% 285k $4.3M (exactly $4,265,854) Pieces Interactive
How to Survive 2 older $14.99 8,641 69% 259k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,858) Eko Software
Totally Reliable Delivery Service older $14.99 1,695 76% 51k $762k (exactly $762,242) We're Five Games
HexBreaker Ⅱ $19.99 1,049 64% 31k $629k (exactly $629,085) 灵煦工作室
Better Mart Simulator $14.99 1,238 89% 37k $557k (exactly $556,729) Exanticx Studio
Amazing Frog? 2 · EA older $19.99 726 77% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Fayju
Vacation Cafe Simulator $19.99 700 88% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Alice Games
Biped 2 $14.99 813 71% 24k $366k (exactly $365,606) META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy… (META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy Studios)
DuneCrawl $19.99 568 74% 17k $341k (exactly $340,630) Alientrap
HOT WHEELS™ Infinite Rush $49.99 55 65% 1.7k $82k (exactly $82,484) Milestone S.r.l.
Warm Monkey $9.00 47 89% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,690) Evprod
Developer Daily $9.99 6 83% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Mehan Games
MADHOUSE · EA $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Paul Hubans

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.