Games › Open World › Open World + Diplomacy
Should I ship a Diplomacy Open World game?
Open World + Diplomacy
Only 13 developers shipped a Diplomacy Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Corsair Cove, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8M, ×1207 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $250k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2423 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 38 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $249k (exactly $249,444) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) |
| Top 25% | $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) |
| Top 5% | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 40 |
| Announced | 38 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $24.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Diplomacy
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Diplomacy; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Building, City Builder
- Price point
- $24.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $24.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 25,860 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $250k. 38 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
- + MusicPoor odds
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
Against the Storm 2023 · $30M 
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M 
Empires of the Undergrowth 2024 · $16M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
| | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
| | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
 | Eco | · EA older | $29.99 | 11,375 80% | 341k | $10M (exactly $10,234,088) | Strange Loop Games |
 | Age of History II | older | $5.99 | 47,614 89% | 1.4M | $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) | Łukasz Jakowski |
 | Norland | · EA older | $29.99 | 8,906 81% | 267k | $8.0M (exactly $8,012,728) | Long Jaunt |
 | NEBULOUS: Fleet Command | · EA older | $29.99 | 4,074 81% | 122k | $3.7M (exactly $3,665,378) | Eridanus Industries |
 | Corsair Cove | $39.99 | 3,026 85% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Limbic Entertainment | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Whiskerwood | · EA | $29.99 | 3,221 92% | 97k | $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) | Minakata Dynamics |
 | Surviving Mars: Relaunched | $39.99 | 2,202 55% | 66k | $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) | Haemimont Games | |
 | Eastern Era | $24.99 | 3,028 65% | 91k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) | FunYoo Games | |
 | Nova Roma | · EA | $29.99 | 2,085 93% | 63k | $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) | Lion Shield |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | House of Legacy | · EA | $14.99 | 3,269 84% | 98k | $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) | S3 Studio |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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