Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Vampires

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Vampire Open World game?

Open World + Vampires

Only 15 developers shipped a Vampire Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Blood of Dawnwalker, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $23k, ×16 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.1k. Revenue is up 4935% on the market; 21 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 4935% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Vampires
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $839 → $1.1k → $67k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Vampires: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,076)
Median $23k (exactly $23,384)
Top 25% $978k (exactly $978,111)
Top 5% $33M (exactly $33,152,163)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 46
Announced 21
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4935% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Vampires
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 33,554 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $23k, 1 in 4 over $970k, 1 in 20 over $33M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  4. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  5. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  6. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  7. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  8. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  9. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  11. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced
  12. + MusicPoor odds10 devs · median $148k · 25 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resident Evil Village older $39.99 106,447 95% 3.2M $128M (exactly $127,704,466) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
V Rising older $34.99 110,505 89% 3.3M $116M (exactly $115,997,098) Stunlock Studios
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Vampyr older $39.99 20,081 77% 602k $24M (exactly $24,091,176) DONTNOD Entertainment
Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 $59.99 10,443 55% 313k $19M (exactly $18,794,267) The Chinese Room
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
The Infected · EA older $15.99 6,583 84% 197k $3.2M (exactly $3,157,865) DigX Studios
Redfall older $39.99 2,460 40% 74k $3.0M (exactly $2,951,262) Arkane Austin
AKIBA'S TRIP: Undead & Undressed older $19.99 3,076 84% 92k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,677) ACQUIRE Corp.
Vampires: Bloodlord Rising · EA $19.99 1,631 70% 49k $978k (exactly $978,111) Mehuman Games
Near-Mage $19.99 180 89% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Stuck In Attic
Vampire Syndicate: Gangs of MoonFall · EA $19.99 111 71% 3.3k $67k (exactly $66,567) A Memory of Eternity
The Book of Outcasts $9.99 101 70% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) kamti
Magissy $14.99 52 46% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Bit Fat Games
Cursed Deal $7.99 51 98% 1.5k $12k (exactly $12,225) Massive Crystal Studios
Hybrid Blood · EA $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Huggman

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.