Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Tanks

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tanks Open World game?

Open World + Tanks

Only 9 developers shipped a Tanks Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Front, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $50. Revenue is up 13535% on the market; 11 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 13535% on the market, 11 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Tanks
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30 → $128k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Tanks: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $128k (exactly $128,449)
Top 5% $5.7M (exactly $5,730,134)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 37
Announced 11
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 13535% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Tanks
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Tanks
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 219,734 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $5.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 11 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  9. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  11. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced
  12. + MusicPoor odds10 devs · median $148k · 25 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
The Front $19.99 9,555 66% 287k $5.7M (exactly $5,730,134) Samar Studio
Steel Division: Normandy 44 older $19.99 4,765 74% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,857,570) Eugen Systems
SAND LAND older $59.99 1,018 86% 31k $1.8M (exactly $1,832,095) ILCA, Inc.
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
METAL MAX Xeno Reborn older $39.99 444 65% 13k $533k (exactly $532,667) 24Frame,inc.
Iron Front: Digital War Edition older $14.99 774 58% 23k $348k (exactly $348,068) X1 Software, AWAR
Combat Air Patrol 2: Military Flight Simulator · EA older $29.99 356 47% 11k $320k (exactly $320,293) Sim155 Limited
Crash Drive 3 older $19.99 219 93% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) M2H
Tankenstein · EA $17.99 238 89% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Landship Games LTD
Oath of Steel $18.99 4 0% 120 $2.3k (exactly $2,279) Ling Jun
Tanks 3D $4.99 9 100% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) yp3d
Code Ragnarok $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) 吴健002
What's Needed $11.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Solitary Bunny Studios
Sunfall '80 $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Sean Beyer
Heroes of Retribution $16.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Sortech Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.