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Should I ship a Minigames Open World game?
Open World + Minigames
Only 8 developers shipped a Minigames Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Star Wars Outlaws, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $17k, ×11 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×17196 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $9.7k (exactly $9,653) |
|---|---|
| Median | $17k (exactly $16,796) |
| Top 25% | $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) |
| Top 5% | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 26 |
| Announced | 13 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $24.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Minigames
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Minigames
- Price point
- $24.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 98,044 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $9.7k. 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Car Mechanic Simulator 2021 2021 · $28M 
Star Wars Outlaws 2024 · $26M 
Yakuza: Like a Dragon 2020 · $17M 
Like a Dragon: Ishin! 2023 · $5.9M 
Yakuza 6: The Song of Life 2021 · $4.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Car Mechanic Simulator 2021 | older | $24.99 | 36,950 95% | 1.1M | $28M (exactly $27,701,415) | Red Dot Games |
| | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
| | Yakuza: Like a Dragon | older | $19.99 | 28,036 93% | 841k | $17M (exactly $16,813,189) | RGG Studio |
| | Like a Dragon: Ishin! | older | $39.99 | 4,891 80% | 147k | $5.9M (exactly $5,867,733) | RGG Studio |
| | Yakuza 6: The Song of Life | older | $19.99 | 7,017 92% | 211k | $4.2M (exactly $4,208,095) | RGG Studio |
 | Gunsmith Simulator | $24.99 | 3,165 84% | 95k | $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) | GameHunters | |
 | Shenmue III | older | $29.99 | 1,028 75% | 31k | $925k (exactly $924,892) | YS NET |
 | Sledding Game | · EA | $7.99 | 2,915 96% | 87k | $699k (exactly $698,726) | The Sledding Corporation |
 | American Theft 80s | older | $19.99 | 1,029 73% | 31k | $617k (exactly $617,091) | Noble Muffins |
 | Creature Crafter | older | $7.99 | 745 86% | 22k | $179k (exactly $178,576) | Daniel Lochner |
 | PAW Patrol™: Dino World | $39.99 | 14 64% | 420 | $17k (exactly $16,796) | 3DClouds | |
 | Garden Ink | $9.50 | 55 100% | 1.7k | $16k (exactly $15,675) | Kranich | |
 | Leafing Home | $13.99 | 23 78% | 690 | $9.7k (exactly $9,653) | Hot Fingers Interactive | |
 | A Tale Of Shadows: Fragments Part I | $29.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $900 (exactly $900) | Madwriter Games | |
 | Splimbo City | · EA | $5.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $180 (exactly $180) | Splimbo Works |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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