Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Open World game?

Open World + LGBTQ+

Of 45 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $58k, ×38 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $23k; 1 in 20 cleared $60M, ×40166 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 70 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 38.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 70 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $90k → $1.4M → $164k → $22k → $100k → $33k (still earning) → $54k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $22k (exactly $22,478)
Median $58k (exactly $57,562)
Top 25% $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596)
Top 5% $60M (exactly $60,169,370)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 142
Announced 70
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 353,254 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $23k, median $58k, 1 in 4 over $1.6M, 1 in 20 over $60M.

3 in 10 developers made under $23k. 5 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M Borderlands 4 2025 · $122M Marvel's Spider-Man 2 2025 · $60M Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales 2022 · $59M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Marvel's Spider-Man 2 $59.99 33,433 83% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,169,370) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales older $49.99 39,234 93% 1.2M $59M (exactly $58,839,230) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
God of War Ragnarök $59.99 32,502 89% 975k $58M (exactly $58,493,849) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
Far Cry® New Dawn older $39.99 32,169 75% 965k $39M (exactly $38,593,149) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Horizon Forbidden West™ Complete Edition older $59.99 20,438 87% 613k $37M (exactly $36,782,269) Guerrilla, Nixxes Software
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Paralives · EA $39.99 20,123 89% 604k $24M (exactly $24,141,563) Alex Massé and team
Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 $59.99 10,443 55% 313k $19M (exactly $18,794,267) The Chinese Room
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.