Games › Mechanics › Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel?
Visual Novel
Of 3,151 developers who shipped a Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,534 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×27 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×2571 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 4,534 games are announced against 1,913 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $600 (exactly $600) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.2k (exactly $3,235) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $23,377) |
| Top 5% | $306k (exactly $305,952) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 3,151 |
| Released games | 12,712 |
| Announced | 4,534 |
| Effort | 2 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
- Systems
- Visual Novel
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 319,666 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 2,228 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,534 games are announced against 1,913 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
All pairs with Visual Novel
- Visual Novel + Space Poor odds $1.8k
- Visual Novel + Noir Poor odds $1.6k
- Visual Novel + Lovecraftian Poor odds $1.5k
- Visual Novel + Dragons Poor odds $1.4k
- Visual Novel + Zombies Poor odds $1.3k
- Visual Novel + Nature Poor odds $1.2k
- Visual Novel + Military Poor odds $1.2k
- Visual Novel + Faith Poor odds $897
- Visual Novel + Transhumanism Poor odds $599
- Visual Novel + Mechs Poor odds $300
- Visual Novel + Heist Dead $24k
- Visual Novel + World War II Dead $13k
- Visual Novel + Western Dead $9.7k
- Visual Novel + Villain Protagonist Dead $2.5k
- Visual Novel + Dinosaurs Dead $1.8k
- Visual Novel + Snow Dead $750
Comparable games
Dispatch 2025 · $157M 
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series 2020 · $55M 
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation 2018 · $39M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dispatch | $29.99 | 174,624 97% | 5.2M | $157M (exactly $157,109,213) | AdHoc Studio | |
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series | older | $49.99 | 36,594 96% | 1.1M | $55M (exactly $54,880,022) | Skybound Games |
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation | older | $24.99 | 52,522 94% | 1.6M | $39M (exactly $39,375,743) | ProjectMoon |
 | Library Of Ruina | older | $29.99 | 40,605 94% | 1.2M | $37M (exactly $36,532,318) | ProjectMoon |
 | Senren＊Banka | older | $34.99 | 33,721 98% | 1.0M | $35M (exactly $35,396,934) | YUZUSOFT |
 | Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy | older | $29.99 | 35,628 97% | 1.1M | $32M (exactly $32,054,512) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | What Remains of Edith Finch | older | $19.99 | 47,036 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,207,489) | Giant Sparrow |
 | Magical Girl Witch Trials | $29.99 | 29,869 96% | 896k | $27M (exactly $26,873,139) | Acacia, Re,AER | |
 | The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- | $59.99 | 6,893 88% | 207k | $12M (exactly $12,405,332) | Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc. | |
 | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
 | Sora no Kiseki the 1st | $59.99 | 5,205 97% | 156k | $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Tiny Bunny | $10.99 | 27,200 83% | 816k | $9.0M (exactly $8,967,840) | Saikono, Sokar | |
 | Esoteric Ebb | $24.99 | 8,719 95% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) | Christoffer Bodegård | |
 | Date Everything! | $29.99 | 6,629 93% | 199k | $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) | Sassy Chap Games | |
 | UNBEATABLE | $27.99 | 6,552 92% | 197k | $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) | D-CELL GAMES | |
 | Mixtape | $19.99 | 7,365 87% | 221k | $4.4M (exactly $4,416,790) | Beethoven and Dinosaur |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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