Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Heist
Should I ship a Heist Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Heist
Only 8 developers shipped a Heist Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Arsene Lupin - Once a Thief, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $24k against a market of $630. 13 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $5.5k (exactly $5,456) |
|---|---|
| Median | $24k (exactly $24,292) |
| Top 25% | $42k (exactly $41,658) |
| Top 5% | $62k (exactly $62,079) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 42 |
| Announced | 13 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $13.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Heist
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Visual Novel
- Price point
- $13.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 9,614 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $5.5k. 13 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
To Be or Not to Be 2022 · $3.1M 
Ninki Seiyuu: How to Make a Pop Voice Actress 2021 · $253k 
Seven Days 2019 · $208k 
Master Magistrate 2020 · $166k 
Cybernetic Seduction - Season 1 2024 · $76k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | To Be or Not to Be | older | $12.99 | 8,035 89% | 241k | $3.1M (exactly $3,131,240) | Team K |
| | Ninki Seiyuu: How to Make a Pop Voice Actress | older | $39.99 | 211 91% | 6.3k | $253k (exactly $253,137) | MintCUBE |
| | Seven Days | older | $39.99 | 173 97% | 5.2k | $208k (exactly $207,548) | LIFE0 |
| | Master Magistrate | older | $29.99 | 184 90% | 5.5k | $166k (exactly $165,545) | IRODORI |
| | Cybernetic Seduction - Season 1 | older | $12.99 | 195 80% | 5.9k | $76k (exactly $75,992) | 1Thousand |
 | Arsene Lupin - Once a Thief | $29.99 | 69 68% | 2.1k | $62k (exactly $62,079) | Blazing Griffin | |
 | Whiskey.Mafia. Leo's Family | older | $5.99 | 331 68% | 9.9k | $59k (exactly $59,481) | FastGame, VICTORIA Games |
 | Sunshine Shuffle | older | $9.99 | 156 76% | 4.7k | $47k (exactly $46,753) | Strange Scaffold |
 | Deviant Dungeon | older | $11.99 | 121 65% | 3.6k | $44k (exactly $43,524) | Miel |
 | SEX Police 🔞🚨 | $9.99 | 139 76% | 4.2k | $42k (exactly $41,658) | Play and Cum 💦 | |
 | Shadowhand Solitaire | $13.99 | 64 90% | 1.9k | $27k (exactly $26,861) | Grey Alien Games | |
 | ROAD59 A Yakuza’s Last Stand | $29.99 | 27 37% | 810 | $24k (exactly $24,292) | 株式会社ロケットスタジオ | |
 | ACCIDENTALLY | $12.99 | 30 60% | 900 | $12k (exactly $11,691) | M&K WORKS | |
 | LOGBOOK: Beneath the Storm | $13.99 | 13 38% | 390 | $5.5k (exactly $5,456) | Pink Iceberg Games | |
 | Casino Heist: Aruba | $8.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $809 (exactly $809) | Little Black Book Entertainment | |
 | BoHeM | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | Lani |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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