Do I ship it?

Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Mechs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mech Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Mechs

Of 22 developers who shipped a Mech Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. Revenue is down 100% on the market, with 20 games announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 20 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Mechs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $124k → $64k → $1.4k → $599 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Mechs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,634)
Top 5% $379k (exactly $379,097)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 63
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Mechs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choose Your Own Adventure, Multiple Endings
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 4,983 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Super Robot Wars 30 2021 · $10M Muv-Luv Alternative 2018 · $4.1M StarVaders 2025 · $2.8M New Gundam Breaker 2018 · $2.6M Baldr Sky 2019 · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Super Robot Wars 30 older $59.99 5,608 85% 168k $10M (exactly $10,092,718) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.
Muv-Luv Alternative older $39.99 3,447 95% 103k $4.1M (exactly $4,135,366) aNCHOR Inc.
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
New Gundam Breaker older $49.99 1,706 45% 51k $2.6M (exactly $2,558,488) CRAFTS & MEISTER Co., Ltd.
Baldr Sky older $49.99 1,524 93% 46k $2.3M (exactly $2,285,543) Sekai Project
Muv-Luv older $29.99 1,852 93% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,666,244) aNCHOR Inc.
ROBOTICS;NOTES ELITE older $34.99 698 90% 21k $733k (exactly $732,691) MAGES. Inc.
Sunrider: Liberation Day - Captain's Edition older $24.99 621 84% 19k $466k (exactly $465,564) Love in Space
Stories from Sol: The Gun-Dog $14.99 843 90% 25k $379k (exactly $379,097) Space Colony Studios
Wolfstride older $14.99 780 89% 23k $351k (exactly $350,766) OTA IMON Studios
Mech Academy $9.99 214 91% 6.4k $64k (exactly $64,136) Space Samurai Studio
Steel Century Groove $19.99 98 94% 2.9k $59k (exactly $58,771) Sloth Gloss Games
BROKEN God Awakening $4.99 25 76% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) lamb of game
Digital Anima: Virtual Lifeform Care Kit $4.39 20 75% 600 $2.6k (exactly $2,634) dankhearts, 双異典
Дейтсим Говна $2.99 16 100% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Traxmaster Productions
Professor mother-in-law begged me to get pregnant $9.99 3 33% 90 $899 (exactly $899) CHEN JIAWEI
Galactic Mecha GunSuit $10.99 2 100% 60 $659 (exactly $659) Theosoft
Transforming my fiancée $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) FSK20006

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.