Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic game?

Gothic

Of 376 developers who shipped a Gothic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 768 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×1284 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 768 games are announced against 237 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 768 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 376
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $2.5k → $2.7k → $3.6k → $1.6k → $2.4k → $1.8k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 376
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,686)
Top 5% $610k (exactly $610,028)
Developers, 2 yr 376
Released games 1,001
Announced 768
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 121,588 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 179 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 768 games are announced against 237 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Gothic

69 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Incremental + Gothic Poor odds $1.3k 15 devs
  2. Hidden Object + Gothic Poor odds $1.2k 24 devs
  3. 3D Platformer + Gothic Poor odds $1.2k 23 devs
  4. Walking Simulator + Gothic Poor odds $1.2k 17 devs
  5. FPS + Gothic Poor odds $1.0k 24 devs
  6. Survival Horror + Gothic Poor odds $838 24 devs
  7. Stealth + Gothic Poor odds $719 15 devs
  8. Puzzle Platformer + Gothic Poor odds $718 16 devs
  9. Card Game + Gothic Poor odds $659 18 devs
  10. Physics + Gothic Poor odds $628 15 devs
  11. 2D Platformer + Gothic Poor odds $599 44 devs
  12. PvE + Gothic Poor odds $449 44 devs
  13. PvP + Gothic Poor odds $449 11 devs
  14. CRPG + Gothic Dead $20k 10 devs
  15. Swordplay + Gothic Dead $1.4k 9 devs
  16. Shoot 'Em Up + Gothic Dead $1.4k 10 devs
  17. Arena Shooter + Gothic Dead $1.4k 8 devs
  18. Tactical + Gothic Dead $300 16 devs
  19. Collectathon + Gothic Dead $210 13 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Darkest Dungeon® 2016 · $106M Lies of P 2023 · $105M No Rest for the Wicked 2024 · EA · $79M Blasphemous 2019 · $41M Gothic 1 Remake 2026 · $39M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Lies of P older $59.99 58,411 91% 1.8M $105M (exactly $105,122,277) NEOWIZ
No Rest for the Wicked · EA older $39.99 66,102 80% 2.0M $79M (exactly $79,302,569) Moon Studios GmbH
Blasphemous older $24.99 54,724 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $41,026,583) The Game Kitchen
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Devil May Cry HD Collection older $29.99 19,493 93% 585k $18M (exactly $17,537,852) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
Of Ash and Steel $29.99 6,091 66% 183k $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) Fire & Frost
Mina the Hollower $19.99 7,562 88% 227k $4.5M (exactly $4,534,931) Yacht Club Games
HENPRI $24.99 3,903 96% 117k $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) Qruppo
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Crimson Moon $19.99 2,760 59% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,655,172) ProbablyMonsters

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.