Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic CRPG?

CRPG + Gothic

Only 10 developers shipped a Gothic CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Necromancer's Tale, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $20k against a market of $1.5k. 25 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 13.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 25 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $2.1k → $103k
Outcomes for CRPG + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Median $20k (exactly $20,236)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,875)
Top 5% $690k (exactly $690,474)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 28
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,344 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $20k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
Duskpunk $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Clockwork Bird, James Patton
Golden Krone Hotel older $9.99 313 94% 9.4k $94k (exactly $93,806) Vulgat
Naudrion: Fall of The Empire · EA older $19.99 97 67% 2.9k $58k (exactly $58,171) Aleksey Skvortsov
Elminage Gothic older $9.99 185 67% 5.6k $55k (exactly $55,444) Starfish-SD Inc
Hieroglyphika older $9.99 143 63% 4.3k $43k (exactly $42,857) M. Hanka
Claymores of the Lost Kingdom $9.99 83 67% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,875) Ultaan Games
Magissy $14.99 52 46% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Bit Fat Games
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux
Throne Requiem $19.99 4 25% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Michael Richard Lannon
Call for Heroes: Pompolic Wars $4.99 14 35% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Quotix Software
Witch Stories $4.99 12 91% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Stephen Scott Day
你的猫 $0.99 35 100% 1.1k $1.0k (exactly $1,040) 数鱼工作室
欺心恋曲/亵渎神明的少女 Deceptiive Love Ballad The Blasphemer 偽りの恋の旋律/神を冒涜する少女 $2.50 7 100% 210 $525 (exactly $525) Hjian

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.