Do I ship it?

GamesArena ShooterArena Shooter + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Gothic

Only 8 developers shipped a Gothic Arena Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Black Dragon Mage, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×6.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.4k against a market of $630. 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 20 announced, ×6.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,832)
Top 5% $25k (exactly $25,158)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 27
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,838 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $25k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Painkiller: Black Edition older $9.99 1,928 89% 58k $578k (exactly $577,822) People Can Fly
CROSSBOW: Bloodnight older $2.99 376 74% 11k $34k (exactly $33,727) Hyperstrange
DOOMBRINGER · EA older $14.99 60 78% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) Anomic Games
Black Dragon Mage · EA $5.99 140 70% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) datablob
Nix Umbra older $9.99 76 84% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) ilzard
Vampire Slayer: The Resurrection older $4.99 78 65% 2.3k $12k (exactly $11,677) Wobbly Tooth
Boons & Burdens older $4.99 75 69% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,228) FromLefcourt
NightMare King $4.99 59 83% 1.8k $8.8k (exactly $8,832) Starmoon Cat
CASTILLO: The Nine Circles older $9.99 22 100% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Jackson Clayton
CrimSaw $4.99 24 87% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) SkyBrave
Red Tower $2.99 16 93% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Dream4team
Bearly Alive $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Falling Light
Devil's Derby $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Elliott Ayling
Doom of the Undying · EA $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) ClawSea
Steeled $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Navid M.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.