Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Incremental game?

Incremental + Gothic

Only 15 developers shipped a Gothic Incremental game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Journey to Incrementalia, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×282 the market median. Revenue is up 475% on the market; 24 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 475% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $4.0k (still earning) → $69k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $68k (exactly $68,354)
Top 5% $134k (exactly $133,832)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 32
Announced 24
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 475% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Incremental; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Linear, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,842 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Journey to Incrementalia $4.99 894 86% 27k $134k (exactly $133,832) Adam Travers
Contract With The Devil older $14.99 243 71% 7.3k $109k (exactly $109,277) AZ-Art Development Studio
Alice's Gaze $3.99 770 91% 23k $92k (exactly $92,169) Starmoon Cat
IGNOBLE $6.99 331 82% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) Retromagine
Big Tiddy Goth Baddie🖤⛓️ $14.99 152 76% 4.6k $68k (exactly $68,354) BanzaiProject
Goth Obsession: Touch Adventure $2.99 560 81% 17k $50k (exactly $50,232) Mora the Goth Girl
RoGlass $9.99 88 98% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) James Castle
Candlelight: Lament older $9.99 82 90% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) 正方形劳伦斯
Satan's puzzle 666 older $2.99 48 81% 1.4k $4.3k (exactly $4,306) Silvestre Gore Art
Saccharine Echo $4.99 27 85% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Neverliss
Fatrifice 3 $5.99 7 85% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) CupCupMug
Odd Machines: Mechanical Boxes $5.99 7 57% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) XSGames
Flappy Witch $2.99 6 83% 180 $538 (exactly $538) CrazyCompany

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.