Do I ship it?

GamesWargameWargame + Time Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Management Wargame?

Wargame + Time Management

Only 17 developers shipped a Time Management Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 👑Idle Calibur:Zero💕(选王之剑:零), made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×234 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 35 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 35 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Time Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $3.3k → $1.1k → $4.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Time Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $900 (exactly $900)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,613)
Top 5% $147k (exactly $146,716)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 48
Announced 35
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Time Management
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame, Time Management; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Real Time Tactics, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 873 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
👑Idle Calibur:Zero💕(选王之剑:零) $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪
SkyInFlames · EA $6.99 223 95% 6.7k $47k (exactly $46,763) VasyliyBritva
Riftborne · EA $7.99 108 91% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) Pitio Productions
Happy Words older $4.99 121 46% 3.6k $18k (exactly $18,114) LAN - GAMES LTD
Kamikaze Veggies older $9.99 34 88% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Red Limb Studio
Legacy of Sin: Ill-Boding $12.99 23 69% 690 $9.0k (exactly $8,963) Absolute Power Game Studio
Middle Age Conquest older $6.99 38 76% 1.1k $8.0k (exactly $7,969) Musa GUNGOR
Hakan's War Manager older $7.99 30 76% 900 $7.2k (exactly $7,191) Oba Games
Kingdoms Rise and Fall · EA older $14.99 13 15% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Little Dreams Gaming
FuJianStrike $6.99 22 100% 660 $4.6k (exactly $4,613) Mithril_055
No Greater Glory: The American Civil War $9.99 11 72% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Space Time Simulations
Central Bank $18.99 5 0% 150 $2.8k (exactly $2,848) Nabiulina software, Jerome Powerr studi… (Nabiulina software, Jerome Powerr studio, Rusalka Unreal Labs)
Logistics Battalion $9.99 8 87% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Awful Waffle Studio
Space War Economy Idle $4.99 9 66% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Chasm Studios
Black Border 2 $1.99 19 63% 570 $1.1k (exactly $1,134) Bitzooma

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.