Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Collectathon

Only 19 developers shipped a Collectathon Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sapphire Safari, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×430 the market median. Revenue is up 560% on the market; 20 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 560% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $359 → $538 → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,194)
Top 5% $644k (exactly $644,174)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 46
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 560% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Collectathon; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 2,335 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  5. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  6. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  7. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  10. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $5.1k · 24 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays
Amazing Frog? 2 · EA older $19.99 726 77% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Fayju
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
ScrewUp older $9.99 259 68% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) 199 Cents STUDIO
Tamarin older $29.99 78 60% 2.3k $70k (exactly $70,177) Chameleon Games
Old Coin Pusher Friends older $3.99 351 89% 11k $42k (exactly $42,015) STP WORKS
WAIFU IMPACT older $5.99 148 85% 4.4k $27k (exactly $26,596) Mitsuki Game Studio
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
RESEQUENCED older $4.99 75 66% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,228) Based On The Play
The Phoenix Gene VR $24.99 10 100% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) HEROmation
WAIFU IMPACT 2 $6.99 20 85% 600 $4.2k (exactly $4,194) Mitsuki Game Studio
Assassin Of Dombardos $9.99 10 80% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Saylor Games
IM LOOPY FOR DOOP LOOPS!!! $4.99 9 88% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) JakeHub, Metater
Zombies In Valkeala $2.99 15 66% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
Hive Havoc 3D $3.99 11 100% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) Digital Dialysis Softworks
Prepare The Past $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Soul Engine Studio LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.