Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Walking Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Walking Simulator Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Walking Simulator

Of 27 developers who shipped a Walking Simulator Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×74 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 27 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 27 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Walking Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $3.0k → $3.0k → $1.1k → $1.2k → $30 → $3.0k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Walking Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 5% $110k (exactly $110,345)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 79
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Walking Simulator; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 15,733 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $480, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. All of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  6. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  7. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  10. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $5.1k · 24 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT older $39.99 49,837 91% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,789,449) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
GOHOME older $14.99 328 85% 9.8k $148k (exactly $147,502) 市松製化, https://1ma2szk.booth.pm/
Sex Trainer's Diary: Hidden Kink $19.99 184 70% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) 老二打鐵舖, 072 Localize, NOVA CONCEPT
VERGE:Lost chapter older $0.99 2,874 52% 86k $85k (exactly $85,358) GDNomaD
Dread X Collection 5 older $9.99 251 81% 7.5k $75k (exactly $75,225) Christopher Yabsley, Stroboskop, Viscer… (Christopher Yabsley, Stroboskop, VisceralError, Nikk F., FYRE Games, Roope Tamminen, Shakles, Darkstone Digital, Philisophic Games, Colorfiction, iwilliams, Matt Reeves, Abbey 'Scruncho' Smith)
Unearthed: Trail of Ibn Battuta - Episode 1 - Gold Edition older $4.99 481 60% 14k $72k (exactly $72,006) Semaphore
It Comes In Waves older $2.99 382 92% 11k $34k (exactly $34,265) Antonio Freyre
project BLARI older $5.99 153 87% 4.6k $27k (exactly $27,494) MaxEstLa
Sex Standing older $3.99 218 53% 6.5k $26k (exactly $26,095) Octo Games
Hollowreach - Alone $6.99 33 72% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) TDOG STUDIOS
Assassin Of Dombardos $9.99 10 80% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Saylor Games
P4ST3L · EA $5.99 15 53% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) UsaginO
Money Theft $4.99 13 76% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Valkeala Software, Tero Lunkka
Money Theft 3 Last Mission $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
Assassin Of Spider 2: 2099 $5.99 10 80% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Saylor games
Evil World HOPSCA $12.99 4 0% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) XU RENYU
Big Theft Valkeala $2.99 17 76% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, Kendall… (Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, Kendall Studios)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.