Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Creature Collector

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Creature Collector Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Creature Collector

Only 12 developers shipped a Creature Collector Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Palworld, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×8.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $370M, ×247416 the market median. Revenue is up 230% on the market; 15 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 230% on the market, 15 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Creature Collector
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $599 → $13k → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Creature Collector: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Median $13k (exactly $12,529)
Top 25% $644k (exactly $644,174)
Top 5% $371M (exactly $370,628,716)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 30
Announced 15
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 230% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Creature Collector
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Creature Collector
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 416,897 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $640k, 1 in 20 over $370M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  10. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $5.1k · 24 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Voidling Bound $24.99 3,126 92% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562) Hatchery Games
Hunt and Snare · EA older $29.99 720 80% 22k $648k (exactly $647,784) Ruffleneck, Hare, Drathek
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays
Layer Land · EA $29.99 24 33% 720 $22k (exactly $21,593) PUDDING Co. Ltd.
Gas Giant Voyage $7.99 60 91% 1.8k $14k (exactly $14,382) 1023 Technology
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
WarOfGods 2 $29.99 13 76% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Mensa World
Gloomy Village older $4.99 46 58% 1.4k $6.9k (exactly $6,886) Sancta Maledicta
Cyber Girl - Zombie Hentai older $3.99 56 58% 1.7k $6.7k (exactly $6,703) Team Soul
Virballs $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Bolder Games, Chimera Studios
Venator Universe · EA $4.99 22 63% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Fullset Gaming
Relictor · EA $9.99 2 50% 60 $599 (exactly $599) AIMTeam

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.