Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Wargame?

Wargame + Space

Of 62 developers who shipped a Space Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×491 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 93 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 93 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $3.6k → $628 → $3.4k → $6.2k → $1.2k → $719 (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $9.8k (exactly $9,828)
Top 5% $308k (exactly $308,044)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 166
Announced 93
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, 4X, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 34,092 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M Creeper World 4 2020 · $3.4M Shadow Empire 2020 · $1.7M Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! 2026 · $1.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Creeper World 4 older $24.99 4,553 94% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,413,384) Knuckle Cracker
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! $24.99 1,352 92% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) Auroch Digital
Space Crew: Legendary Edition older $15.99 1,684 77% 51k $808k (exactly $807,815) Runner Duck
Creeper World IXE $19.99 855 69% 26k $513k (exactly $512,743) Knuckle Cracker
Polaris Sector older $39.99 419 70% 13k $503k (exactly $502,674) SoftWarWare
Horizon older $29.99 377 58% 11k $339k (exactly $339,187) L3O Interactive
IDUN - Frontline Survival $14.99 685 77% 21k $308k (exactly $308,044) IDUN Interactive
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond $24.99 253 39% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) Jujubee
Dawn Apart · EA $19.99 245 68% 7.4k $147k (exactly $146,926) Industrial Technology and Witchcraft
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced $9.99 174 95% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Holistic Design, Inc.
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.