Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Auto Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Auto Battler Simulation game?

Simulation + Auto Battler

Of 219 developers who shipped an Auto Battler Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 293 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $480. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 293 games are announced against 153 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 293 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Auto Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 219
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $5.5k → $3.3k → $2.7k → $1.9k → $2.2k → $2.9k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Auto Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 219
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,988)
Top 5% $459k (exactly $458,816)
Developers, 2 yr 219
Released games 467
Announced 293
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Auto Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Auto Battler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Management, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 36,294 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 89 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 293 games are announced against 153 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  12. + 4 Player LocalFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
Luck be a Landlord older $9.99 10,213 93% 306k $3.1M (exactly $3,060,836) TrampolineTales
Esports Godfather older $19.99 4,319 90% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,590,104) Asteroid Game Studio
Dragon Cliff older $9.99 7,679 88% 230k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,396) Meta Interaction
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator · EA older $6.99 8,904 96% 267k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) JoySpark Games
Yaoling: Mythical Journey $19.99 2,854 90% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,544) RAYKA STUDIO
Teamfight Manager older $9.99 5,663 86% 170k $1.7M (exactly $1,697,201) Team Samoyed
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
Teamfight Manager 2 · EA $19.99 2,251 60% 68k $1.3M (exactly $1,349,925) Team Samoyed
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Citadelum $24.99 1,005 83% 30k $753k (exactly $753,448) Abylight Barcelona
ShapeHero Factory $23.99 991 88% 30k $713k (exactly $713,223) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Horripilant $7.99 2,928 92% 88k $702k (exactly $701,842) Alexandre Declos , Pas Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.