Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + FMV

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an FMV Simulation game?

Simulation + FMV

Of 150 developers who shipped an FMV Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $55k, ×87 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $10k. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 81 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year, ×0.9 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 87.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 81 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + FMV
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 150
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $8.7k → $29k → $68k → $46k → $108k → $31k (still earning) → $52k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + FMV: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 150
Bottom 30% $11k (exactly $10,653)
Median $55k (exactly $54,652)
Top 25% $136k (exactly $136,377)
Top 5% $610k (exactly $609,945)
Developers, 2 yr 150
Released games 378
Announced 81
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, FMV; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Multiple Endings, Visual Novel
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 46,709 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $11k, median $55k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $11k. 3 in 10 of the 79 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  2. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  3. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  5. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  6. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  7. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  9. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  11. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  12. + 4 Player LocalFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Need for Speed™ older $29.99 25,443 69% 763k $23M (exactly $22,891,067) Ghost Games
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
Not For Broadcast older $24.99 10,337 94% 310k $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) NotGames
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Late Shift older $14.99 7,762 86% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,490,571) CtrlMovie
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
Her Story older $9.99 8,367 89% 251k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,590) Sam Barlow
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Hello Love: 18 Again $19.99 2,075 92% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,378) 念念而忘(Echofall Studio)
Shao Song I $14.99 2,671 81% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐
Love is All Around 2 $9.99 3,749 83% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) intiny
美女,请别影响我成仙 $10.99 3,140 93% 94k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) 蒸汽满满工作室
Conquer the world $12.99 1,996 92% 60k $778k (exactly $777,841) 互动之星

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.