Do I ship it?

Games › Simulation › Simulation + Programming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Simulation game?

Simulation + Programming

Of 132 developers who shipped a Programming Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 174 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 174 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 174 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 132
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $13k → $3.3k → $2.5k → $11k → $4.3k → $3.1k (still earning) → $848 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 132
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,712)
Top 5% $284k (exactly $284,462)
Developers, 2 yr 132
Released games 352
Announced 174
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Programming; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Automation, Strategy, Sandbox
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 17,472 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 174 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + 4 Player LocalFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starbase 2021 · EA · $6.5M Mad Games Tycoon 2 2023 · $5.5M Software Inc. 2015 · EA · $5.2M Hacknet 2015 · $5.1M Opus Magnum 2017 · $3.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Software Inc. · EA older $22.99 7,576 94% 227k $5.2M (exactly $5,225,167) Coredumping
Hacknet older $9.99 16,910 93% 507k $5.1M (exactly $5,067,927) Team Fractal Alligator
Opus Magnum older $19.99 5,964 97% 179k $3.6M (exactly $3,576,611) Zachtronics
Turing Complete · EA older $19.99 5,520 95% 166k $3.3M (exactly $3,310,344) LevelHead
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Autonauts older $19.99 3,596 90% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,156,521) Denki
Juno: New Origins older $19.99 3,085 89% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,850,074) Jundroo, LLC
Desynced $29.99 1,879 79% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Stage Games Inc.
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
HackHub - Ultimate Hacker Simulator $16.99 937 88% 28k $478k (exactly $477,589) HotBunny
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
ServiceIT: You can do IT $12.99 676 56% 20k $263k (exactly $263,437) picture4u
Data Center $8.99 916 76% 27k $247k (exactly $247,045) Waseku
Replicube $9.99 709 96% 21k $212k (exactly $212,487) Walaber Entertainment LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.