Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Wargame?

Wargame + Roguelike

Of 57 developers who shipped a Roguelike Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 95 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×236 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 95 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 95 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $18k → $1.3k → $21k → $1.3k → $657 → $1.2k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,035)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,144)
Top 5% $148k (exactly $148,352)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 112
Announced 95
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame, Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 5,264 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 95 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Bad North: Jotunn Edition 2018 · $5.6M Tabletop Tavern 2026 · $1.2M Warriors of the Nile 2020 · $940k Space Crew: Legendary Edition 2020 · $808k Warriors of the Nile 2 2022 · $531k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Warriors of the Nile older $12.99 2,412 79% 72k $940k (exactly $939,956) Stove Studio
Space Crew: Legendary Edition older $15.99 1,684 77% 51k $808k (exactly $807,815) Runner Duck
Warriors of the Nile 2 older $14.99 1,180 88% 35k $531k (exactly $530,646) Stove Studio
Multi Turret Academy · EA older $8.99 1,778 95% 53k $480k (exactly $479,527) Yulia Games
👑 Idle Calibur 👑（选王之剑） older $7.99 1,242 85% 37k $298k (exactly $297,707) 绝汪
Wargroove 2 older $19.99 403 69% 12k $242k (exactly $241,679) Chucklefish, Robotality
Yokai Art: Night Parade of One Hundred Demons older $6.99 1,132 89% 34k $237k (exactly $237,380) Secret Labo
Drone Sector · EA $16.99 366 89% 11k $187k (exactly $186,550) Icosphere
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco
👑Idle Calibur：Zero💕（选王之剑：零） $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪
Warlords Under Siege $9.99 436 77% 13k $131k (exactly $130,669) RedKar Devs
Flowers and Deities $12.99 265 90% 8.0k $103k (exactly $103,270) Chill Winter Studio
Mage and Monsters II $8.99 372 82% 11k $100k (exactly $100,328) Lasse Zacho Malver
Death Ring: Second Impact · EA $19.99 163 78% 4.9k $98k (exactly $97,751) Rouge Mecha
Yokai Art 2: Tales of the Nine-Tails $9.99 314 75% 9.4k $94k (exactly $94,106) Secret Labo
Three Kingdoms : Alias · EA $7.99 359 79% 11k $86k (exactly $86,052) Plotrick

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.