Do I ship it?

GamesWargameWargame + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Wargame?

Wargame + Post-apocalyptic

Of 23 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×764 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 76 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 76 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $178 → $23k → $13k → $2.0k → $0 → $2.7k (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,973)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,184)
Top 5% $480k (exactly $479,760)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 82
Announced 76
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Real Time Tactics, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 2,869 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
This War of Mine older $19.99 81,804 93% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,057,859) 11 bit studios
Urtuk: The Desolation older $13.99 2,408 87% 72k $1.0M (exactly $1,010,638) David Kaleta
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow
Minimalist Tower Defense older $4.99 1,830 94% 55k $274k (exactly $273,951) Happy213
The Light Remake older $4.99 1,462 87% 44k $219k (exactly $218,861) Носков Сергей
Alien Marauder · EA older $19.99 323 60% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) Vexan Studio
Ogre older $24.99 223 66% 6.7k $167k (exactly $167,183) Auroch Digital
Battlecruisers older $9.99 386 83% 12k $116k (exactly $115,684) Mecha Weka
After Long Night $9.99 381 72% 11k $114k (exactly $114,186) 疯狗工作室
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
ZombieCards $5.99 232 48% 7.0k $42k (exactly $41,690) HotScent
Battlefall: State of Conflict · EA $19.99 52 63% 1.6k $31k (exactly $31,184) Kyoto Video Game Concern
Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance $6.99 86 55% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,034) zzzgame
The Dawn: Sniper's Way $24.99 18 22% 540 $13k (exactly $13,495) PHOSPHORUS GAMES
Maelstrom: The Battle for Earth Begins Enhanced $6.99 33 75% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) KDV Games
EagleRoad:WorldRise $9.99 22 90% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) XuJie

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.