Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Simulation game?

Simulation + 4 Player Local

Of 69 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 185% on the market; 86 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 86 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 69
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $1.9k → $16k → $1.9k → $1.1k → $4.8k → $3.1k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 69
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,845)
Top 5% $533k (exactly $532,534)
Developers, 2 yr 69
Released games 235
Announced 86
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, 4 Player Local; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Local Multiplayer, Co-op, Local Co-Op
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Family Friendly, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 37,436 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
Overcooked! 2 older $24.99 61,956 90% 1.9M $46M (exactly $46,448,413) Ghost Town Games Ltd., Team17
Wobbly Life $24.99 33,034 97% 991k $25M (exactly $24,765,590) RubberBandGames
Overcooked older $16.99 13,528 89% 406k $6.9M (exactly $6,895,222) Ghost Town Games Ltd.
Overcooked! All You Can Eat older $39.99 5,744 73% 172k $6.9M (exactly $6,891,077) Team17 Digital, Ghost Town Games
Cricket 24 older $44.99 2,435 79% 73k $3.3M (exactly $3,286,520) Big Ant Studios
Super Mega Baseball 3 older $44.99 1,832 92% 55k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,650) Metalhead Software Inc.
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
Cook, Serve, Delicious! older $12.99 3,713 95% 111k $1.4M (exactly $1,446,956) Vertigo Gaming Inc.
THE GAME OF LIFE 2 older $12.49 3,702 78% 111k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,139) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Tennis Elbow 4 $29.99 1,077 96% 32k $969k (exactly $968,977) Mana Games
Better Mart Simulator $14.99 1,238 89% 37k $557k (exactly $556,729) Exanticx Studio
Walk of Life $19.99 888 94% 27k $533k (exactly $532,534) Porcelain Fortress
Vacation Cafe Simulator $19.99 700 88% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Alice Games
Choppy Cuts $16.99 261 75% 7.8k $133k (exactly $133,032) Moco Studios I
Golden Tee Arcade Classics $29.99 45 86% 1.4k $40k (exactly $40,486) Digital Eclipse
Jonah Lomu Rugby Challenge 4 $39.99 30 70% 900 $36k (exactly $35,991) Glinda Games
Pocket Cars $9.99 114 87% 3.4k $34k (exactly $34,166) Gen90Software
Up to Par $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) It's Anecdotal

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.