Games › Open World › Open World + Western
Should I ship a Western Open World game?
Open World + Western
Of 22 developers who shipped a Western Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $12k, ×7.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×326 the market median. Revenue is up 175% on the market; 36 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
|---|---|
| Median | $12k (exactly $11,534) |
| Top 25% | $69k (exactly $68,609) |
| Top 5% | $489k (exactly $488,802) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 22 |
| Released games | 70 |
| Announced | 36 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 175% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Western
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 22,858 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B 
Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M 
Fallout: New Vegas 2010 · $63M 
Red Dead Online 2020 · $36M 
Red Dead Redemption 2024 · $30M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Red Dead Redemption 2 | older | $59.99 | 846,270 92% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) | Rockstar Games |
| | Hunt: Showdown 1896 | older | $29.99 | 213,023 74% | 6.4M | $192M (exactly $191,656,793) | Crytek |
| | Fallout: New Vegas | older | $9.99 | 211,748 95% | 6.4M | $63M (exactly $63,460,876) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | Red Dead Online | older | $19.99 | 59,572 82% | 1.8M | $36M (exactly $35,725,328) | Rockstar Games |
| | Red Dead Redemption | $49.99 | 20,294 92% | 609k | $30M (exactly $30,434,912) | Rockstar Games, Double Eleven | |
 | Blood West | older | $24.99 | 6,132 90% | 184k | $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) | Hyperstrange |
 | This Land Is My Land | older | $29.99 | 4,248 68% | 127k | $3.8M (exactly $3,821,926) | Game-Labs |
 | Outlaws of the Old West | · EA older | $19.99 | 5,584 58% | 168k | $3.3M (exactly $3,348,725) | Virtual Basement LLC |
 | West of Loathing | older | $10.99 | 9,716 97% | 291k | $3.2M (exactly $3,203,365) | Asymmetric |
 | Hard West | older | $19.99 | 4,103 74% | 123k | $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) | CreativeForge Games |
 | Alaska Gold Fever | $16.99 | 959 79% | 29k | $489k (exactly $488,802) | Baked Games | |
 | Unbridled: That Horse Game | · EA | $24.99 | 487 85% | 15k | $365k (exactly $365,104) | Mind Evotion Games |
 | Wild Indigo Ranch | $19.99 | 424 68% | 13k | $254k (exactly $254,273) | Funday Games | |
 | Tombwater | $24.99 | 282 92% | 8.5k | $211k (exactly $211,415) | Moth Atlas | |
 | Western Rye | · EA | $21.99 | 104 53% | 3.1k | $69k (exactly $68,609) | Nixalon Studios |
 | Deadrock Redemption 2 | $14.99 | 123 86% | 3.7k | $55k (exactly $55,313) | Entropy Digital Entertainment | |
 | Frontier Legends | · EA | $29.99 | 57 40% | 1.7k | $51k (exactly $51,283) | Neojac Entertainment Inc. |
 | Ranchbound | · EA | $17.99 | 44 50% | 1.3k | $24k (exactly $23,747) | Eldersong Games |
 | Bounty Trail | $6.99 | 84 52% | 2.5k | $18k (exactly $17,615) | September Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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