Games › Open World › Open World + War
Should I ship a War Open World game?
Open World + War
Of 61 developers who shipped a War Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 158 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.6k, ×5.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $4.2M, ×2864 the market median. Revenue is up 375% on the market; 158 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.6k (exactly $7,556) |
| Top 25% | $249k (exactly $249,444) |
| Top 5% | $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 61 |
| Released games | 325 |
| Announced | 158 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 375% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- War
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Action
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 72% positive over 54,793 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 158 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M 
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M 
Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M 
Arma 3 2013 · $206M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Battlefield™ V | older | $49.99 | 236,709 70% | 7.1M | $355M (exactly $354,992,487) | DICE |
| | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
| | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
| | Arma 3 | older | $29.99 | 228,910 90% | 6.9M | $206M (exactly $205,950,327) | Bohemia Interactive |
 | Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ | older | $49.99 | 87,777 88% | 2.6M | $132M (exactly $131,639,167) | Monolith Productions |
 | Sniper Elite 4 | older | $59.99 | 54,258 91% | 1.6M | $98M (exactly $97,648,123) | Rebellion |
 | Insurgency: Sandstorm | older | $29.99 | 104,168 85% | 3.1M | $94M (exactly $93,719,950) | New World Interactive |
 | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
 | Battlefield 4™ | older | $39.99 | 69,373 84% | 2.1M | $83M (exactly $83,226,788) | DICE |
 | Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 | $69.99 | 14,063 44% | 422k | $30M (exactly $29,528,081) | Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware) | |
 | Sniper Elite: Resistance | $49.99 | 4,825 75% | 145k | $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) | Rebellion | |
 | Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition | $19.99 | 10,627 92% | 319k | $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) | Firefly Studios | |
 | 龙胤立志传 | $19.99 | 7,153 77% | 215k | $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) | TPP Studio | |
 | Master of Command | $29.99 | 3,840 92% | 115k | $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) | Armchair Interactive | |
 | SpaceBourne 2 | $19.99 | 4,951 75% | 149k | $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) | Burak Dabak | |
 | Gunsmith Simulator | $24.99 | 3,165 84% | 95k | $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) | GameHunters | |
 | Three Kingdoms Mushouden | $24.99 | 1,876 72% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) | NanBei Studio | |
 | Crown and Adventure | $19.99 | 1,693 61% | 51k | $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) | C3D Games | |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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