Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics Open World game?

Open World + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 65 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×6.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×834 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 129 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 129 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $1.2k → $9.0k → $31k → $6.3k → $450 → $67k (still earning) → $9.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,994)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $58,455)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 211
Announced 129
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Adventure
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 25,556 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Wandering Sword 2023 · $28M Wasteland 3 2020 · $21M WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship 2017 · $7.3M Pit People® 2018 · $4.5M The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship older $19.99 12,146 82% 364k $7.3M (exactly $7,283,956) KT Racing
Pit People® older $19.99 7,458 92% 224k $4.5M (exactly $4,472,563) The Behemoth
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Keep Driving $17.99 6,188 93% 186k $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) YCJY Games
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
Beastieball · EA $24.99 1,483 97% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,805) Wishes Ultd.
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
万象群侠传 $8.99 853 85% 26k $230k (exactly $230,054) 火天工作室
Chaos Front $19.99 252 59% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Han Zhiyu

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.