Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Open World game?

Open World + Traditional Roguelike

Only 12 developers shipped a Traditional Roguelike Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Caves of Qud, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×7142 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0M → $7.7k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 25% $390k (exactly $390,203)
Top 5% $11M (exactly $10,699,232)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 35
Announced 25
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Traditional Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 21,129 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $390k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Caves of Qud 2024 · $11M Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M Low Magic Age 2017 · EA · $1.5M Soulash 2 2023 · EA · $1.4M Tales of Maj'Eyal 2013 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
Tales of Maj'Eyal older $6.99 6,320 94% 190k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,304) Netcore Games
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
The Doors of Trithius · EA older $14.99 973 93% 29k $438k (exactly $437,558) Jake Donkersgoed
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Wayward · EA older $7.99 1,213 86% 36k $291k (exactly $290,756) Unlok
TownsFolk $11.99 22 81% 660 $7.9k (exactly $7,913) Short Circuit Studios
Alchemist's Alcove $7.99 32 96% 960 $7.7k (exactly $7,670) Nefarious Brew Games
A Tale of Silent Depths $9.99 21 80% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Crit42 Studio
Seven Blasphemies $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Crit42 Studio
Dungeon World $6.99 6 83% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) FBRZD
The Green Earth · EA $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Caleb M
Convalescent Codex: An Alchemist's Story $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Liar Adahn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.