Games › Open World › Open World + Trading
Should I ship a Trading Open World game?
Open World + Trading
Of 71 developers who shipped a Trading Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 214 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.3k, ×5.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1427 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 214 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.3k (exactly $8,252) |
| Top 25% | $85k (exactly $84,530) |
| Top 5% | $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 71 |
| Released games | 234 |
| Announced | 214 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $10.00 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Trading
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Trading; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Sandbox, Simulation
- Price point
- $10.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 47,134 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 214 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Elite Dangerous 2015 · $49M 
X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M 
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm 2023 · $31M 
Sunkenland 2023 · EA · $12M 
Drug Dealer Simulator 2020 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Elite Dangerous | older | $19.99 | 82,399 76% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,414,680) | Frontier Developments |
| | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
| | Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm | older | $24.99 | 40,862 79% | 1.2M | $31M (exactly $30,634,241) | Toxic Dog |
| | Sunkenland | · EA older | $19.99 | 20,536 80% | 616k | $12M (exactly $12,315,439) | Vector3 Studio |
| | Drug Dealer Simulator | older | $19.99 | 18,297 85% | 549k | $11M (exactly $10,972,711) | Byterunners |
 | Car For Sale Simulator | $16.99 | 20,229 78% | 607k | $10M (exactly $10,310,721) | Red Axe Games | |
 | Eco | · EA older | $29.99 | 11,375 80% | 341k | $10M (exactly $10,234,088) | Strange Loop Games |
 | Avorion | older | $24.99 | 13,001 90% | 390k | $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) | Boxelware |
 | Anno 2205™ | older | $39.99 | 6,115 70% | 183k | $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) | Blue Byte |
 | The Guild 3 | older | $29.99 | 7,120 60% | 214k | $6.4M (exactly $6,405,864) | Purple Lamp, GolemLabs |
 | Car Dealer Simulator | $19.99 | 9,831 88% | 295k | $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) | Garage Monkeys | |
 | My Garage | $19.99 | 4,010 90% | 120k | $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) | Viking Game Studio | |
 | SpiritVale | · EA | $14.99 | 4,755 48% | 143k | $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) | Baikun Interactive |
 | Ostranauts | $19.99 | 3,137 77% | 94k | $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) | Blue Bottle Games | |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | Cozy Caravan | $19.99 | 1,247 93% | 37k | $748k (exactly $747,826) | 5 Lives Studios | |
 | Used Cars Simulator | · EA | $19.99 | 1,147 79% | 34k | $688k (exactly $687,856) | DreamWay Games |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | Stars Reach | · EA | $29.99 | 322 52% | 9.7k | $290k (exactly $289,703) | Playable Worlds, Inc. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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