Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Open World game?

Open World + Top-Down Shooter

Of 49 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 118 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 118 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper, while revenue is up 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 118 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $2.0k → $2.7k → $239 → $538 → $899 → $748 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,617)
Top 5% $104k (exactly $104,348)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 159
Announced 118
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Top-Down Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 8,797 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 118 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Foxhole 2022 · $43M The Ascent 2021 · $17M The Precinct 2025 · $7.1M RUNNING WITH RIFLES 2015 · $6.6M RUINER 2017 · $6.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
The Ascent older $29.99 19,235 74% 577k $17M (exactly $17,305,730) Neon Giant
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
RUINER older $19.99 10,338 89% 310k $6.2M (exactly $6,199,699) Reikon Games
Hatred older $5.99 25,770 84% 773k $4.6M (exactly $4,630,869) Destructive Creations
How to Survive 2 older $14.99 8,641 69% 259k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,858) Eko Software
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
Starcom: Unknown Space older $24.99 4,464 92% 134k $3.3M (exactly $3,346,661) Wx3 Labs, LLC
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Keep Her Safe · EA $9.99 382 97% 11k $114k (exactly $114,485) Gugu Studio
Glitchpunk $19.99 174 47% 5.2k $104k (exactly $104,348) Dark Lord
Warspace 2 $17.99 83 59% 2.5k $45k (exactly $44,795) Magic Game Art
Gum Squad $4.99 81 100% 2.4k $12k (exactly $12,126) FernMakesGames
Dark Sword: The Light of Ainn $3.99 63 93% 1.9k $7.5k (exactly $7,541) MrDoth
Sand: A Superfluous Game $9.99 24 83% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Voided Pixels Studio
Blood Night · EA $1.99 109 95% 3.3k $6.5k (exactly $6,507) Team
The Henchmen $9.99 21 76% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Alex Von Bronx
Dust & Courage: Jake Bolton’s Journey $7.99 23 86% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) Storyforge Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.