Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Open World game?

Open World + Tabletop

Only 8 developers shipped a Tabletop Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Card Cultivation, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $25k against a market of $1.5k. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 16.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 190% on the market, 16 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $50k → $9.0k → $40k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $9.6k (exactly $9,595)
Median $25k (exactly $24,875)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $40,180)
Top 5% $312k (exactly $312,092)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 56
Announced 16
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Tabletop
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 60,370 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $9.6k, median $25k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $9.6k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 9,478 92% 284k $5.7M (exactly $5,683,957) Beamdog
Icewind Dale: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 3,107 91% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,863,268) Beamdog
Black Geyser: Couriers of Darkness older $29.99 924 74% 28k $831k (exactly $831,323) GrapeOcean Technologies
Doodle God older $14.99 1,030 77% 31k $463k (exactly $463,191) JoyBits Ltd.
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
Card Cultivation $14.99 694 70% 21k $312k (exactly $312,092) DarkIndex
Fabled Lands older $18.99 523 79% 16k $298k (exactly $297,953) Prime Games
Epic Tavern · EA older $24.99 295 55% 8.9k $221k (exactly $221,162) Hyperkinetic Studios
Draw Steel · EA $19.99 67 98% 2.0k $40k (exactly $40,180) Verisim, MCDM
Casino Island Simulator · EA $8.99 120 61% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,364) Clap Games
Claymores of the Lost Kingdom $9.99 83 67% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,875) Ultaan Games
AFKandia - Epoch of Idle $5.99 66 45% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,860) Yang++ Game Studio
Hero Quest - God of Chaos · EA $19.99 16 93% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Future Intellect LLC
Chess, Texas $4.99 27 81% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Studio Apollo
Khalco Farm $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Leovigildo Leon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.