Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG Open World game?

Open World + Strategy RPG

Of 94 developers who shipped a Strategy RPG Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 218 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×2.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×1376 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 218 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 218 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 94
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.5k → $31k → $1.8k → $23k → $4.4k → $897 → $5.5k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 94
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,198)
Top 25% $57k (exactly $56,662)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213)
Developers, 2 yr 94
Released games 271
Announced 218
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 85,877 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 218 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Kenshi 2018 · $89M The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome 2026 · $51M SCARLET NEXUS 2021 · $25M For The King 2018 · $19M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
Erenshor · EA $19.99 2,153 94% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,291,154) Burgee Media
Crown and Adventure $19.99 1,693 61% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) C3D Games
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.