Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Stealth

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Stealth Open World game?

Open World + Stealth

Of 92 developers who shipped a Stealth Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 275 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×3.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $32M, ×21633 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 275 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 275 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Stealth
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 92
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $2.4k → $5.6k → $8.4k → $3.9k → $2.2k → $1.6k (still earning) → $31k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Stealth: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 92
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,513)
Top 25% $232k (exactly $231,657)
Top 5% $32M (exactly $32,406,770)
Developers, 2 yr 92
Released games 407
Announced 275
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Stealth; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 470,079 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $230k, 1 in 20 over $32M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 275 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M Far Cry® 5 2018 · $311M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M Dying Light 2015 · $280M The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016 · $263M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition older $39.99 219,271 94% 6.6M $263M (exactly $263,059,419) Bethesda Game Studios
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered older $59.99 101,879 96% 3.1M $183M (exactly $183,351,636) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands older $49.99 99,590 78% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,355,123) Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade)
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Marvel's Spider-Man 2 $59.99 33,433 83% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,169,370) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 $59.99 10,443 55% 313k $19M (exactly $18,794,267) The Chinese Room
Assassin's Creed Mirage $49.99 11,612 76% 348k $17M (exactly $17,414,516) Ubisoft Bordeaux
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.