Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Split Screen

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Split Screen Open World game?

Open World + Split Screen

Of 20 developers who shipped a Split Screen Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×6.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $24M, ×16532 the market median. Revenue is up 1340% on the market; 27 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1340% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Split Screen
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2M → $60 → $1.5k → $366k → $80k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Split Screen: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 25% $366k (exactly $365,606)
Top 5% $25M (exactly $24,765,590)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 105
Announced 27
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1340% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Split Screen
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Split Screen; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Online Co-Op
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 46,845 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $360k, 1 in 20 over $24M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition older $39.99 27,485 88% 825k $33M (exactly $32,973,754) Larian Studios
Outward Definitive Edition older $39.99 24,636 72% 739k $30M (exactly $29,555,809) Nine Dots Studio
Wobbly Life $24.99 33,034 97% 991k $25M (exactly $24,765,590) RubberBandGames
DiRT Rally 2.0 older $19.99 39,091 89% 1.2M $23M (exactly $23,442,873) Codemasters
Need for Speed™ older $29.99 25,443 69% 763k $23M (exactly $22,891,067) Ghost Games
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 older $39.99 17,281 91% 518k $21M (exactly $20,732,016) Koei Tecmo
Gears 5 older $29.99 21,210 72% 636k $19M (exactly $19,082,637) The Coalition
Easy Delivery Co. $12.99 9,538 95% 286k $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959) Sam C
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.
Wreckreation $39.99 360 63% 11k $432k (exactly $431,892) Three Fields Entertainment
Biped 2 $14.99 813 71% 24k $366k (exactly $365,606) META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy… (META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy Studios)
HOT WHEELS™ Infinite Rush $49.99 55 65% 1.7k $82k (exactly $82,484) Milestone S.r.l.
Taival · EA $19.99 134 83% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Bonobo Software
3D Train Studio V9 $34.99 29 82% 870 $30k (exactly $30,441) Stefan Werner
Pawbay: Cat Chaos $19.99 20 70% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) COMMANDO PANDA
Wild Ice $19.99 17 100% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Journey Bound Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.