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Should I ship a Sokoban Open World game?
Open World + Sokoban
Only 6 developers shipped a Sokoban Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gentoo Rescue, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $19k, ×13 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×95 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) |
|---|---|
| Median | $19k (exactly $18,887) |
| Top 25% | $36k (exactly $36,000) |
| Top 5% | $142k (exactly $142,129) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 6 |
| Released games | 28 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $18.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Sokoban
- effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Sokoban
- Price point
- $18.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 5,831 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $5.4k. 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
A Monster's Expedition 2020 · $956k 
Isles of Sea and Sky 2024 · $922k 
Paquerette Down the Bunburrows 2023 · $401k 
A Good Snowman Is Hard To Build 2015 · $305k 
Bonfire Peaks 2021 · $170k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | A Monster's Expedition | older | $19.99 | 1,594 94% | 48k | $956k (exactly $955,922) | Draknek & Friends |
| | Isles of Sea and Sky | older | $19.99 | 1,538 91% | 46k | $922k (exactly $922,339) | Cicada Games |
| | Paquerette Down the Bunburrows | older | $11.99 | 1,115 96% | 33k | $401k (exactly $401,066) | Bunstack |
| | A Good Snowman Is Hard To Build | older | $14.99 | 679 96% | 20k | $305k (exactly $305,346) | Alan Hazelden, Benjamin Davis |
| | Bonfire Peaks | older | $19.99 | 284 93% | 8.5k | $170k (exactly $170,315) | Corey Martin, Alan Hazelden, Mari Zand,… (Corey Martin, Alan Hazelden, Mari Zand, Zach Soares) |
 | Gentoo Rescue | $19.99 | 237 99% | 7.1k | $142k (exactly $142,129) | Jagriff | |
 | Pipe Push Paradise | older | $9.99 | 159 96% | 4.8k | $48k (exactly $47,652) | Corey Martin, Teo Zamudio |
 | Toroban | $20.00 | 60 86% | 1.8k | $36k (exactly $36,000) | Hebert Games LLC | |
 | Altered | older | $7.99 | 117 100% | 3.5k | $28k (exactly $28,045) | Glitchheart |
 | Roody:2d | · EA older | $14.99 | 48 97% | 1.4k | $22k (exactly $21,586) | redinator2000 |
 | Sliding Hero | $14.99 | 42 88% | 1.3k | $19k (exactly $18,887) | Silent Chicken | |
 | Lighthaze World | $18.99 | 16 100% | 480 | $9.1k (exactly $9,115) | Radiobush | |
 | We Are Gum | $9.99 | 18 100% | 540 | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) | Curious Nessie Club | |
 | Sokocat: Castaway | $4.99 | 8 87% | 240 | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) | Rising Moon Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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