Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Sniper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sniper Open World game?

Open World + Sniper

Only 8 developers shipped a Sniper Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, WARDOGS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $17k against a market of $1.5k. 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 11.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 8 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Sniper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World + Sniper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $17k (exactly $16,776)
Top 25% $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052)
Top 5% $70M (exactly $69,882,525)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 38
Announced 8
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Sniper
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Sniper
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 227,664 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $7.2M, 1 in 20 over $69M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Sniper Elite 5 older $49.99 24,818 83% 745k $37M (exactly $37,219,555) Rebellion
Zombie Army Trilogy older $44.99 14,285 85% 429k $19M (exactly $19,280,464) Rebellion
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Zombie Army 4: Dead War older $49.99 10,028 86% 301k $15M (exactly $15,038,992) Rebellion
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts older $29.99 10,966 73% 329k $9.9M (exactly $9,866,110) CI Games
Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 older $19.99 15,133 67% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) CI Games
Sniper Elite: Resistance $49.99 4,825 75% 145k $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) Rebellion
Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2 older $9.99 13,694 75% 411k $4.1M (exactly $4,104,092) City Interactive
Red Tears: Angola · EA $14.99 39 84% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Arun Haines
Pirate Hunter $6.99 80 87% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,776) DIOsoft
The Dawn: Sniper's Way $24.99 18 22% 540 $13k (exactly $13,495) PHOSPHORUS GAMES
Midwinter Fan Remaster · EA $19.99 2 100% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Titanium Helix Games
Wild Hunter VR · EA $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Squad Cell
Rocinha Wars $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Amadeu Augusto de Carvalho Venturini

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.