Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Skateboarding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Skateboarding Open World game?

Open World + Skateboarding

Only 9 developers shipped a Skateboarding Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, STORROR Parkour Pro, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×803 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 14 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Skateboarding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World + Skateboarding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,873)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 26
Announced 14
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Skateboarding
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Skateboarding
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 60,686 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 14 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Riders Republic older $39.99 30,458 81% 914k $37M (exactly $36,540,463) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa)
Skater XL - The Ultimate Skateboarding Game older $39.99 18,400 86% 552k $22M (exactly $22,074,480) Easy Day Studios Pty Ltd
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 1 + 2 older $39.99 4,497 90% 135k $5.4M (exactly $5,395,051) Vicarious Visions, Iron Galaxy Studios
BMX Streets older $24.99 4,366 80% 131k $3.3M (exactly $3,273,190) Mash Games
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios
SkateBIRD older $19.99 637 85% 19k $382k (exactly $382,009) Glass Bottom Games
BMX The Game · EA older $24.99 448 60% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Barspin Studios
Star Overdrive $34.99 141 87% 4.2k $148k (exactly $148,008) Caracal Games
TRUE SKATE™ · EA older $19.99 67 56% 2.0k $40k (exactly $40,180) True Axis Pty Ltd
Skate Rift older $5.99 67 94% 2.0k $12k (exactly $12,040) Mt.Zero Software
Bambas! $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) DevilishGames
Sonki's Lagoon · EA $7.99 20 95% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) CocoDev
Newbie: Become a Skateboarder · EA $3.99 24 66% 720 $2.9k (exactly $2,873) Haahuile Entertainment
Bike Park Simulator: BMX, Dirt Jump & MTB · EA $7.99 2 0% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Hard Shark Games
Codename Medusa · EA $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Serramonaca Capital Ventures
Second Dreamer $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) echomune
Caddywack $11.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Tanssem Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.